Updated at 2025-06-06 07:59:42.010877

Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-05
  Number of rows: 5008

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-05
  Number of rows: 5008

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250606_065946
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-05
  Number of rows: 5008

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-05
  Number of rows: 5008

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250606_065946
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv

✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!

Output folder: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-06.1
Success! PDF saved to: C:\Users\Chris\Downloads\btc_report\btc_report_2025-06-06.1\btc_report_2025-06-06.pdf
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1-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
9 1 October 16.71% 14.6% 72.94% -31.96% 61.22% 425 False 10.93% 12.75% 75% 124 49.98% 48.73% 100% 93 -4.05% -4.46% 33.33% 93 12.82% 28.54% 80.87% 115
1 2 February 11.48% 11.63% 71.21% -31.49% 65.17% 396 False 10.85% 4.71% 50% 116 26.93% 30.1% 75% 112 -5.89% 1.63% 66.67% 84 9.11% 11.06% 100% 84
10 3 November 40.82% 11.54% 65.06% -37.01% 450.16% 415 False 24.9% 25.19% 100% 120 165.87% 54.61% 66.67% 90 -13.89% -16.22% 33.33% 90 2.39% 8.8% 52.17% 115
6 4 July 10.19% 9.92% 69.23% -9.06% 40.61% 403 False 15.4% 13.69% 75% 124 14.7% 15.83% 100% 93 9.59% 16.84% 66.67% 93 -0.68% -4.06% 33.33% 93
0 5 January 5.72% 9.7% 57.54% -32.43% 54.53% 431 False 8.05% 8.22% 75% 124 19.57% 12% 75% 124 -11.31% -16.74% 33.33% 93 1.04% -7.6% 34.44% 90
4 6 May 9.92% 7.06% 57.14% -35.39% 70.36% 434 False 11.01% 10.39% 100% 124 9.38% 1.28% 50% 124 1.75% -15.61% 33.33% 93 17.37% -3.2% 33.33% 93
3 7 April 11.25% 5.4% 64.29% -17.32% 46.47% 420 False 7.41% 5.19% 75% 120 21.22% 20.07% 75% 120 4.94% -1.31% 33.33% 90 9.42% 2.67% 66.67% 90
5 8 June 1.24% 2.12% 53.16% -37.3% 27.85% 395 True 10.71% 11.08% 50% 120 -9.2% -6.02% 31.58% 95 -16.65% -14.77% 33.33% 90 17.51% 14.67% 100% 90
2 9 March 12.27% -1.96% 42.86% -32.83% 186.76% 434 False -3.75% -3.43% 25% 124 51.09% 13.88% 50% 124 -15.03% -17.57% 33.33% 93 9.15% 8.05% 66.67% 93
8 10 September -4.03% -3.11% 36.32% -39.75% 19.8% 413 False 6.54% 6.96% 75% 120 -5.63% -6.97% 0% 90 -9.14% -5.96% 0% 90 -9.92% 2.58% 53.1% 113
11 11 December 6.64% -3.2% 49.65% -34.61% 47.15% 431 False 20.26% 18.54% 75% 124 -4.59% -18.96% 33.33% 93 -8.45% -6.98% 0% 93 12.92% 12% 74.38% 121
7 12 August 1.67% -8.31% 37.71% -26.61% 65.78% 411 False -1.24% -2.85% 50% 124 36.78% 30.92% 100% 93 -13.65% -13.86% 0% 93 -13% -11.26% 0% 101 
2-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-December 40.27% 27.46% 64.29% -41.42% 259.63% 14 False 50.53% 35.82% 100% 4 116.89% 115.72% 66.67% 3 -21.93% -19.35% 0% 3 19.18% 29.92% 75% 4
9 2 October-November 79.1% 25.99% 64.29% -39.81% 786.97% 14 False 39.7% 37.14% 100% 4 315.63% 129.95% 100% 3 -18.21% -11.58% 0% 3 14.07% 15.4% 50% 4
8 3 September-October 11.47% 18.8% 71.43% -58.75% 59.14% 14 False 16.89% 18.8% 100% 4 41.76% 35.91% 100% 3 -12.45% -10.16% 33.33% 3 1.26% 14.53% 50% 4
3 4 April-May 23.47% 17.47% 64.29% -36.48% 114.5% 14 False 18.89% 16.99% 75% 4 34.68% 30.36% 75% 4 5.33% 8.17% 66.67% 3 32.77% -4.41% 33.33% 3
1 5 February-March 34.18% 12.27% 64.29% -43.36% 373.65% 14 False 9.36% 0.57% 50% 4 110.7% 44.28% 75% 4 -18.94% -31.73% 33.33% 3 18.37% 19.99% 100% 3
5 6 June-July 11.07% 11.29% 69.23% -26.61% 79.5% 13 True 28.16% 18.71% 75% 4 4.16% 11.29% 66.67% 3 -10.26% -7.29% 33.33% 3 16.54% 18.02% 100% 3
11 7 December-January 12.6% 9.48% 64.29% -42.33% 68.2% 14 False 42.35% 47.52% 100% 4 -19.51% -28.27% 33.33% 3 -7.21% -14.04% 33.33% 3 21.79% 18.09% 75% 4
4 8 May-June 14.13% 5.83% 69.23% -47.06% 104.26% 13 False 23% 19.82% 100% 4 2.47% -35.99% 33.33% 3 -11.73% -30.92% 33.33% 3 39.81% 11.01% 100% 3
0 9 January-February 18.65% 5.8% 64.29% -25.69% 153.25% 14 False 18.45% 14.02% 100% 4 55.71% 39.64% 75% 4 -19.04% -24.85% 0% 3 7.19% 2.64% 66.67% 3
2 10 March-April 27.83% 1.93% 64.29% -18.66% 317.18% 14 False 0.8% 0.7% 75% 4 92.47% 20.5% 100% 4 -13.99% -12.91% 0% 3 19.5% 26.31% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-August 13.69% 0.49% 53.85% -25.15% 92.02% 13 False 15.31% 10.82% 50% 4 56.56% 43.16% 100% 3 -4.92% 0.49% 66.67% 3 -12.73% -12.46% 0% 3
7 12 August-September 0.14% -5.1% 30.77% -32.98% 51.48% 13 False 5.56% -2.16% 25% 4 28.76% 29.13% 100% 3 -21.39% -16.59% 0% 3 -14.18% -17.03% 0% 3 
3-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
10 1 November-January 47.09% 30.53% 78.57% -45.86% 294.52% 14 False 77.59% 65.94% 100% 4 105% 57.73% 66.67% 3 -22.95% -35.83% 33.33% 3 25.69% 20.64% 100% 4
9 2 October-December 73.81% 27.94% 64.29% -44.02% 479.8% 14 False 70.92% 53.16% 100% 4 235.36% 220.84% 100% 3 -25.5% -17.6% 0% 3 30.04% 25.57% 50% 4
8 3 September-November 74.26% 25.94% 64.29% -60.13% 775.53% 14 False 46.1% 46.78% 100% 4 302.19% 110.12% 100% 3 -26.35% -21.29% 0% 3 6.92% 12.09% 50% 4
4 4 May-July 23.52% 20.24% 61.54% -38.04% 111.72% 13 False 41.29% 35.36% 100% 4 17.93% -28.21% 33.33% 3 -8.28% -16.42% 33.33% 3 37.2% 20.24% 66.67% 3
1 5 February-April 55.46% 15% 57.14% -44.1% 589.06% 14 False 11.74% 7.03% 50% 4 173.9% 57.28% 75% 4 -18.41% -8.94% 0% 3 29.68% 26.37% 100% 3
11 6 December-February 29.23% 14.17% 64.29% -50.86% 170.62% 14 False 87.04% 95.07% 75% 4 -23.75% -24.28% 33.33% 3 -0.78% -4.51% 33.33% 3 33.66% 29.88% 100% 4
2 7 March-May 37.2% 12.29% 71.43% -27.37% 281.48% 14 False 11.63% 10.57% 100% 4 95.25% 58.51% 75% 4 -13.37% -26.51% 33.33% 3 44.46% 17.6% 66.67% 3
7 8 August-October 22.15% 11.97% 69.23% -42.08% 125.3% 13 False 15.21% 15.25% 100% 4 93.79% 108.18% 100% 3 -24.16% -18.42% 0% 3 6.07% 8.95% 66.67% 3
3 9 April-June 28.02% 7.61% 61.54% -56.23% 162.95% 13 False 31.56% 38.62% 75% 4 27.83% -6.25% 33.33% 3 -7.69% -7.81% 33.33% 3 59.19% 7.61% 100% 3
0 10 January-March 54.24% 2.72% 50% -50.08% 626.21% 14 False 15.4% 1.61% 50% 4 182.02% 56.73% 75% 4 -29.83% -37.86% 0% 3 19.75% 10.89% 66.67% 3
6 11 July-September 11.88% 1% 53.85% -38.89% 85.15% 13 False 23.85% 9.48% 75% 4 47.23% 41.2% 100% 3 -12.75% -2.68% 33.33% 3 -14.8% -11.5% 0% 3
5 12 June-August 14.48% 0.42% 61.54% -36.88% 106.02% 13 True 28.62% 15.31% 75% 4 44.23% 26.49% 100% 3 -22.3% -23.7% 0% 3 2.65% 0.42% 66.67% 3 
6-Month Period Performance:
  Rank Period Mean Return Median Return Success Rate Min Return Max Return Count Is Current Year4 Mean Year4 Median Year4 Success Year4 Count Year1 Mean Year1 Median Year1 Success Year1 Count Year2 Mean Year2 Median Year2 Success Year2 Count Year3 Mean Year3 Median Year3 Success Year3 Count
8 1 September-February 86.19% 66.01% 64.29% -47.08% 330.1% 14 False 167.12% 168.72% 100% 4 146.54% 117.88% 66.67% 3 -25.88% -45.96% 33.33% 3 44.05% 38.96% 50% 4
9 2 October-March 125.23% 53.4% 78.57% -37.92% 687.47% 14 False 309.75% 260.61% 100% 4 108.09% 60.16% 100% 3 -9.53% -37.3% 33.33% 3 54.63% 38.42% 75% 4
7 3 August-January 103.32% 45.64% 61.54% -62.83% 721.32% 13 False 106.41% 89.49% 100% 4 323.16% 255.38% 66.67% 3 -39.78% -55.83% 0% 3 22.49% 29.44% 66.67% 3
11 4 December-May 104.03% 45.3% 71.43% -44.3% 932.36% 14 False 310.01% 149.6% 100% 4 -37.58% -43.92% 0% 3 44.9% 58.56% 66.67% 3 48.6% 45.3% 100% 4
6 5 July-December 121.97% 45.02% 69.23% -49.84% 718.7% 13 False 102.98% 74.8% 100% 4 404.5% 462.97% 100% 3 -36.4% -42.16% 0% 3 23.14% 38.69% 66.67% 3
0 6 January-June 81.65% 44.32% 69.23% -56.9% 576.21% 13 False 43.8% 46.32% 100% 4 250.72% 155.14% 100% 3 -41.1% -53.99% 0% 3 85.8% 84.33% 66.67% 3
10 7 November-April 135.98% 43.93% 71.43% -38.65% 1171.64% 14 False 404.54% 206.19% 100% 4 41.84% 43.64% 66.67% 3 -1.29% -16.42% 33.33% 3 40.98% 47.41% 75% 4
5 8 June-November 111.69% 42.85% 69.23% -47% 776.49% 13 True 82.81% 75.72% 100% 4 387.4% 332.88% 100% 3 -44.3% -45.97% 0% 3 30.5% 38.57% 66.67% 3
4 9 May-October 54.16% 31.17% 76.92% -45.54% 377% 13 False 63.52% 57.77% 100% 4 142.9% 45.52% 100% 3 -34.02% -31.81% 0% 3 41.12% 31.17% 100% 3
1 10 February-July 75.2% 30.4% 76.92% -39.4% 384.14% 13 False 52.64% 59.83% 100% 4 201.9% 196.25% 100% 3 -30.26% -27.52% 0% 3 84.07% 30.4% 100% 3
2 11 March-August 62.14% 12.04% 61.54% -53.59% 297.45% 13 False 41.85% 33.7% 75% 4 194.46% 281.75% 100% 3 -32.92% -31.97% 0% 3 51.93% 12.04% 66.67% 3
3 12 April-September 44.76% -3.17% 46.15% -57.33% 303.8% 13 False 63.26% 57.17% 75% 4 103.52% 32.2% 66.67% 3 -25.36% -14.01% 0% 3 31.44% -3.17% 33.33% 3
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Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87%
2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80%
2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34%
2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74%
2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33%
2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%
2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31%
2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44%
2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98%
2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41%
2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53%

Average Year-End Return: +536.71%
Median Year-End Return: +111.33%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018):
  Average: -65.12%
  Sample size: 3 years
Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011):
  Average: +55.29%
  Sample size: 4 years
Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024):
  Average: +175.69%
  Sample size: 4 years
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Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021

Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year):
2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07%
2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%
2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18%

Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79%
Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13%

Returns by Cycle Year:
Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021):
  Average: +2261.79%
  Sample size: 3 years

Calculating best fit line from start to end of data...
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============================================================
BEST FIT LINE FROM START TO END SUMMARY:
============================================================
Total Data Period: 5008 days
R-squared: 0.886426
Scale Type: Log Scale
Daily Growth Rate: 0.1832%
Annual Growth Rate: 95.05%

Historical Performance:
Start Price: $10.90
End Price: $101575.95
Total Change: $101565.05 (931789.48%)

1000-Day Projection:
Projected Price: $1517658.27
Projected Change: $1416082.32 (1394.11%)

Valuation Oscillator Summary:
Current Deviation: -58.26%
Max Overvaluation: 1062.48%
Max Undervaluation: -92.23%
🟢 Currently UNDERVALUED relative to long-term trend

Finding top 3 best fitting linear regression channels for BTC (log scale)...

Top 3 Best Fitting Linear Regression Channels (Log Scale):
================================================================================

1. Window Size: 1000 days
   R-squared: 0.934663
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1940%
   Annual Growth Rate: 102.90%
   Price Change: $79903.95 (368.70%)
   Start Price: $21672.00
   End Price: $101575.95

2. Window Size: 750 days
   R-squared: 0.884341
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.1977%
   Annual Growth Rate: 105.65%
   Price Change: $74757.95 (278.76%)
   Start Price: $26818.00
   End Price: $101575.95

3. Window Size: 60 days
   R-squared: 0.851856
   Daily Growth Rate: 0.5359%
   Annual Growth Rate: 603.56%
   Price Change: $22448.95 (28.37%)
   Start Price: $79127.00
   End Price: $101575.95

Plotting the top 3 regression channels with adaptive projections...
(Windows ≤100 days: +30d projection, Windows >100 days: +180d projection)
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Results stored in 'top_channels' variable

============================================================
SUMMARY - TOP 3 BEST FITTING CHANNELS:
============================================================

#1. 1000 days | R² = 0.934663
     Annual Growth: 102.90%
     Price Range: $21672 → $101576 (368.7%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $122,535 ($91,601 - $163,917)
     +60 days: $129,872 ($97,080 - $173,742)
     +90 days: $137,649 ($102,887 - $184,156)

#2. 750 days | R² = 0.884341
     Annual Growth: 105.65%
     Price Range: $26818 → $101576 (278.8%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $123,880 ($91,356 - $167,982)
     +60 days: $131,443 ($96,923 - $178,258)
     +90 days: $139,468 ($102,829 - $189,163)

#3. 60 days | R² = 0.851856
     Annual Growth: 603.56%
     Price Range: $79127 → $101576 (28.4%)

     PRICE PROJECTIONS:
     +30 days: $132,982 ($122,131 - $144,797)
     +60 days: $156,111 ($142,187 - $171,399)
     +90 days: $183,263 ($165,167 - $203,341)

========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +22.9%   3.8:1  $47,222 $63,650 $94,959 $124,825 $165,054 $246,445 $326,885
Fat Tails (Student-t)       +9.4%   2.2:1  $-8,953 $42,411 $80,992 $111,172 $149,309 $230,966 $321,918
Skewed Normal              +27.0%   4.3:1  $56,087 $71,479 $100,900 $128,966 $163,520 $229,910 $290,294
Historical Bootstrap       +24.1%   3.6:1  $44,942 $63,403 $96,179 $126,088 $163,720 $239,791 $324,970
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +21.1%   2.9:1  $18,300 $50,408 $89,795 $122,976 $163,409 $248,319 $353,038
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +20.9%   3.4:1  $31,520 $58,270 $92,565 $122,806 $161,002 $239,086 $323,421
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +22.9%   3.6:1  $44,942 $63,403 $94,959 $124,825 $163,520 $239,791 $324,970
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +20.9%
• Target Price: $122,806
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $58,270 to $239,086
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $58,270 (-42.6%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $239,086 (+135.4%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 67.9% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 32.1% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +9.4% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.2:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-8,953
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $42,411
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $80,992
→ Median value in 90 days $111,172
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $149,309
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $230,966
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $321,918
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $42,411 (-58.2%)
→ VaR (1%): $-8,953 (-108.8%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (90 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +21.1% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 2.9:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $18,300
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $50,408
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $89,795
→ Median value in 90 days $122,976
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $163,409
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $248,319
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $353,038
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $50,408 (-50.4%)
→ VaR (1%): $18,300 (-82.0%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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========================================================================================================================
                           MONTE CARLO SIMULATION SUMMARY TABLE
========================================================================================================================
Method                    Median   Risk/  99% >    95% >    75% >    Median   75% <    95% <    99% <   
Name                      Change   Reward Above    Above    Above    Price    Below    Below    Below   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard GBM (Normal)      +60.5%   8.3:1  $38,961 $60,066 $108,161 $162,999 $247,348 $447,402 $656,787
Fat Tails (Student-t)      +20.4%   3.3:1  $-101,729 $16,595 $71,853 $122,272 $196,149 $381,231 $650,998
Skewed Normal              +74.7%  11.4:1  $52,227 $72,505 $123,140 $177,448 $255,484 $434,111 $613,359
Historical Bootstrap       +64.6%   8.3:1  $37,096 $59,242 $110,474 $167,241 $250,784 $454,888 $690,187
Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)  +53.1%   5.4:1  $-14,703 $34,788 $94,554 $155,515 $241,780 $461,476 $764,055
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AVERAGE ACROSS METHODS     +54.7%   7.4:1  $ 2,370 $48,639 $101,636 $157,095 $238,309 $435,822 $675,077
MEDIAN ACROSS METHODS      +60.5%   8.3:1  $37,096 $59,242 $108,161 $162,999 $247,348 $447,402 $656,787
========================================================================================================================

🎯 CONSENSUS FORECAST (Average of All Methods):
• Expected Return (90 days): +54.7%
• Target Price: $157,095
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 7.4:1
• 95% Confidence Range: $48,639 to $435,822
• Extreme Downside (5% chance): Below $48,639 (-52.1%)
• Extreme Upside (5% chance): Above $435,822 (+329.1%)
• 📈 Probability of Profit: 74.7% chance of making money
• 📉 Probability of Loss: 25.3% chance of losing money

================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (208 Days)
                    Method: Fat Tails (Student-t)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +20.4% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 3.3:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-101,729
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $16,595
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $71,853
→ Median value in 208 days $122,272
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $196,149
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $381,231
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $650,998
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $16,595 (-83.7%)
→ VaR (1%): $-101,729 (-200.2%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
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================================================================================
     ENHANCED BITCOIN MONTE CARLO SUMMARY (208 Days)
                    Method: Mixed (Bootstrap + Extremes)
================================================================================
Median outcome: +53.1% change
Risk/Reward ratio: 5.4:1
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $-14,703
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $34,788
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be ABOVE $94,554
→ Median value in 208 days $155,515
→ 75% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $241,780
→ 95% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $461,476
→ 99% chance Bitcoin will be BELOW $764,055
================================================================================
→ VaR (5%): $34,788 (-65.8%)
→ VaR (1%): $-14,703 (-114.5%)

📈 PRICE CHART WITH MONTE CARLO LEVELS:
--------------------------------------------------
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====================================================================================================
                           DRIFT RATE COMPARISON
====================================================================================================
             Method Daily Drift Daily % Annual Drift Annual %
        Simple Mean    0.003251 0.3251%       1.1865  118.65%
     Geometric Mean    0.001827 0.1827%       0.9470   94.70%
        Log Returns    0.001825 0.1825%       0.6663   66.63%
Volatility-Adjusted    0.002333 0.2333%       0.8514   85.14%
     Rolling Window    0.002082 0.2082%       0.7599   75.99%
       Regime-Aware    0.008053 0.8053%       2.9392  293.92%

SUMMARY STATISTICS ACROSS ALL METHODS:
--------------------------------------------------
Daily Drift - Average:  0.003228 (0.3228%)
Daily Drift - Median:   0.002207 (0.2207%)
Annual Drift - Average: 1.2250 (122.50%)
Annual Drift - Median:  0.8992 (89.92%)
Annual Drift - Std Dev: 0.7837 (78.37%)

Range: 66.63% to 293.92% (spread: 227.29%)
Coefficient of Variation: 64.0%

🎯 RECOMMENDATIONS:

For Monte Carlo Simulations:
• Conservative: Log Returns method = 0.001825 daily
• Realistic: Volatility-adjusted = 0.002333 daily
• Current regime: Bull Market = 0.008053 daily
• Average across methods = 0.003228 daily (122.5% annual)
• Median across methods = 0.002207 daily (89.9% annual)

Method Consensus Level: LOW - methods show significant disagreement

Key Insights:
• Annual drift estimates range from 66.6% to 293.9%
• Average estimate: 122.5% (mean of all methods)
• Median estimate: 89.9% (middle value)
• Standard deviation: 78.4% (measure of disagreement)
• Most conservative: Log Returns (66.6%)
• Most aggressive: Regime-Aware (293.9%)
• High variation suggests using median (89.9%) over mean

🎯 MARKET SIMILARITY ANALYSIS - NON-OVERLAPPING VERSION
============================================================
📊 Calculating market features...

🎯 CURRENT FEATURES ANALYSIS:
   Days since ATH: 14
   % from ATH: -9.28%
   RSI-14: 42.5

🔍 Finding similar periods...
✅ Found 6 diverse periods
📊 Analyzing top 3 most similar periods

🏆 TOP 3 SIMILAR PERIODS (NON-OVERLAPPING CHARTS)
================================================================================

#1 MATCH (Score: 0.998) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-09-05 00:00:00 to 2024-11-04 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-05 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   14.0 | Then  235.0 | Diff -221.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -9.3 | Then   -8.1 | Diff   -1.2
   30d return     : Now   12.6 | Then    5.9 | Diff   +6.6
   RSI-14         : Now   42.5 | Then   51.3 | Diff   -8.8
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  +13.1%
   10d:  +28.8%
   20d:  +44.5%
   30d:  +45.6%
   60d:  +44.7%
   90d:  +44.0%
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   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #1

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#2 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2021-07-18 00:00:00 to 2021-09-16 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-05 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   14.0 | Then  155.0 | Diff -141.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -9.3 | Then  -26.4 | Diff  +17.1
   30d return     : Now   12.6 | Then   20.9 | Diff   -8.3
   RSI-14         : Now   42.5 | Then   52.4 | Diff   -9.9
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  -15.0%
   10d:   -9.5%
   20d:  +15.9%
   30d:  +27.4%
   60d:  +33.2%
   90d:   +2.3%
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   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #2

────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

#3 MATCH (Score: 0.997) - 28 features
📅 Period: 2024-06-02 00:00:00 to 2024-08-01 00:00:00
🔍 Current Signal Date: 2025-06-05 00:00:00 (Today's analysis date)
🔍 Key Comparisons:
   Days since ATH : Now   14.0 | Then  140.0 | Diff -126.0
   % from ATH     : Now   -9.3 | Then  -11.5 | Diff   +2.2
   30d return     : Now   12.6 | Then   -1.8 | Diff  +14.4
   RSI-14         : Now   42.5 | Then   51.9 | Diff   -9.4
📈 What happened next:
   5d :  -14.2%
   10d:  -10.1%
   20d:   -6.3%
   30d:   -9.7%
   60d:   -3.0%
   90d:  +10.8%
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   └─ Non-overlapping chart created for Match #3

Applying clustering filter with 10-day window...
  Filtered from 178 to 15 periods
Found 5 periods with correlation >= 0.7

Top correlated periods:
1. 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-16 (Year: 2022, Correlation: 0.8605)
   Extended to: 2023-08-15 (+180 days)
2. 2023-06-20 to 2023-11-22 (Year: 2023, Correlation: 0.8409)
   Extended to: 2024-05-20 (+180 days)
3. 2013-04-26 to 2013-09-28 (Year: 2013, Correlation: 0.8295)
   Extended to: 2014-03-27 (+180 days)
4. 2015-06-22 to 2015-11-24 (Year: 2015, Correlation: 0.8152)
   Extended to: 2016-05-22 (+180 days)
5. 2019-09-24 to 2020-02-26 (Year: 2019, Correlation: 0.8030)
   Extended to: 2020-08-24 (+180 days)
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Detailed correlation results:
  start_date   end_date  correlation  year  period_length  extended_length
0 2022-09-14 2023-02-16     0.860465  2022            156              336
1 2023-06-20 2023-11-22     0.840911  2023            156              336
2 2013-04-26 2013-09-28     0.829536  2013            156              336
3 2015-06-22 2015-11-24     0.815193  2015            156              336
4 2019-09-24 2020-02-26     0.803013  2019            156              336

Best match details:
Period: 2022-09-14 to 2023-02-16
Correlation: 0.8605

           time          open         high            low          close  daily_return_percent       day  year  year_return_percent  cycle_year  cycle_year_return_percent  quarter  quarter_return_percent month  monthly_return_percent  week  weekly_return_percent half_month  half_monthly_return_percent  gross_return
5007 2025-06-05  104750.78125  105936.6875  100436.882812  101575.953125              -3.03084  Thursday  2025             8.815445           1                   8.815445        2               23.067174  June               -2.925672    23              -3.856002    1H_June                    -2.925672      0.969692
ORIGINAL ROLLING RETURNS ANALYSIS:
================================================================================
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No similar periods found with threshold ±0.5%
Try increasing 'highlight_threshold' or adjusting filter parameters.

===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns in 2024-2025 =====
Total recovery points found: 2

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 32.4%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: -2.9% (Win rate: 50.0%)
14 days: 0.7% (Win rate: 50.0%)
30 days: 3.6% (Win rate: 50.0%)
60 days: 0.8% (Win rate: 100.0%)
90 days: 22.6% (Win rate: 100.0%)
180 days: 58.5% (Win rate: 100.0%)
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===== Bitcoin 50% Recovery Points from 30%+ Drawdowns Cycle Year(s): Year1 =====
Total recovery points found: 20

Showing 3 out of 20 recovery points (sorted by drawdown size)

Recovery Point #1 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2016-06-12 00:00:00
Year: 2016 | Cycle_year: 4 | Quarter: 2 | Month: June
Price at recovery: $672.13
Previous peak (high): $1163.00
Drawdown low: $152.40
Drawdown amount: $1010.60 (86.9%)
Recovery amount: $519.73 (51.4%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 13.3% | 14d: -2.1% | 30d: -1.3% | 60d: -12.9% | 90d: -7.5% | 180d: 14.5%

Recovery Point #2 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2019-06-25 00:00:00
Year: 2019 | Cycle_year: 3 | Quarter: 2 | Month: June
Price at recovery: $11751.01
Previous peak (high): $19666.00
Drawdown low: $3122.28
Drawdown amount: $16543.72 (84.1%)
Recovery amount: $8628.73 (52.2%)

Forward Returns:
7d: -7.8% | 14d: 6.9% | 30d: -15.9% | 60d: -13.6% | 90d: -17.6% | 180d: -36.1%

Recovery Point #3 (sorted by drawdown size):
Date: 2013-10-18 00:00:00
Year: 2013 | Cycle_year: 1 | Quarter: 4 | Month: October
Price at recovery: $152.89
Previous peak (high): $259.34
Drawdown low: $45.00
Drawdown amount: $214.34 (82.6%)
Recovery amount: $107.89 (50.3%)

Forward Returns:
7d: 22.0% | 14d: 32.2% | 30d: 212.2% | 60d: 341.5% | 90d: 432.7% | 180d: 246.5%

----- Average Statistics -----
Average Drawdown: 50.2%

Average Forward Returns:
7 days: 1.8% (Win rate: 55.0%)
14 days: 8.9% (Win rate: 60.0%)
30 days: 28.1% (Win rate: 55.0%)
60 days: 38.9% (Win rate: 52.6%)
90 days: 67.8% (Win rate: 63.2%)
180 days: 90.7% (Win rate: 63.2%)
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🎯 COMPLETE ANALYSIS FOR Year1
============================================================
🔄 Calculating days since 20-day highs/lows...

📊 CURRENT STATUS (20-DAY WINDOW):
Days since 20-day high: 14
Days since 20-day low: 0
20-day high: $111970.17
20-day low: $100436.88
Current close: $101575.95
Current cycle year: 1
Current month: June
Current quarter: Q2
------------------------------------------------------------

🧪 HISTORICAL TESTING - 20-DAY WINDOW:
============================================================

🔴 Testing: Days since 20-day HIGH = 14
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,008 → 0 (0.0%)
==================================================
No occurrences found for days_since_20d_high = 14 with current filters

🟢 Testing: Days since 20-day LOW = 0
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,008 → 0 (0.0%)
==================================================
No occurrences found for days_since_20d_low = 0 with current filters

📈 Creating original visualizations...
🔍 APPLYING FILTERS:
==================================================
📅 Cycle Year: Year1

📈 Records: 5,008 → 0 (0.0%)
==================================================
⚠️ No data available for original visualization with current filters

📈 CREATING INDIVIDUAL YEAR CHARTS FOR Year1:
============================================================

🔴 High Signal Charts (20D High = 14 days):
No calendar years found for cycle year: Year1

🟢 Low Signal Charts (20D Low = 0 days):
No calendar years found for cycle year: Year1
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Conversion successful!
Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
Before update data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-05
  Number of rows: 5008

CSV is already up to date.
After update (unchanged) data summary:
  Date range: 2011-08-18 to 2025-06-05
  Number of rows: 5008

Moved original file to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\Old\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv_20250606_070210
Copied updated file back to C:\Users\Chris\BTC_price_history\BITSTAMP_BTCUSD, 1D.csv
Bitcoin performance after first all time high in 30 days (Year1)
================================================================
      Date Bitcoin Close High Price Cycle Year   Week  Month 3 Month 6 Month    Year
01/21/2013         16.52      16.98      Year1  13.01  81.60  619.19  414.77 4893.28
02/20/2013         30.00      30.07      Year1   4.37 133.00  291.67  242.83 1772.87
03/25/2013         75.11      80.00      Year1  39.40  98.38   33.68   64.28  677.22
11/06/2013        263.24     265.00      Year1  49.48 207.71  205.04   64.49   32.95
02/23/2017      1,188.11   1,193.92      Year1   5.80 -19.53  103.71  243.82  755.65
04/30/2017      1,350.21   1,356.00      Year1  15.09  63.20   98.53  327.48  584.50
06/06/2017      2,880.74   2,933.00      Year1  -6.17  -9.73   48.47  290.52  165.85
08/05/2017      3,263.62   3,339.66      Year1  18.12  31.05  118.98  175.74  115.48
10/12/2017      5,445.00   5,445.00      Year1   4.66  16.71  173.46   25.54   13.59
11/16/2017      7,846.96   7,976.79      Year1   1.81 144.53   20.95    8.00  -29.80
12/16/2017     19,187.78  19,377.00      Year1 -23.81 -29.08  -56.96  -65.36  -83.36
01/01/2021     29,402.64  29,700.00      Year1  38.31  12.72   99.74   19.16   62.49
02/08/2021     46,416.45  46,712.12      Year1   3.29  20.33   25.61   -3.89   -5.01
03/13/2021     61,165.19  61,781.83      Year1  -4.95  -2.18  -38.95  -24.15  -38.22
04/13/2021     63,564.48  63,769.00      Year1 -11.11 -21.82  -47.92  -13.92  -35.27
10/20/2021     65,990.31  67,016.50      Year1 -11.40 -11.91  -35.78  -38.15  -71.14
01/20/2025    102,141.00 109,356.00      Year1  -0.05  -5.38  -16.59   -0.55   -0.55
05/21/2025    109,682.00 110,730.00      Year1  -1.71  -7.39   -7.39   -7.39   -7.39
   Average                                       7.45  39.01   90.86   95.73  489.06
    Median                                       3.83  14.71   41.08   22.35   23.27
% Positive                                       61.1   55.6    66.7    61.1    55.6

Found 155 total ATHs to analyze

Analyzing 14-day pause ATHs...
Found 14 ATHs with 14-day pause
Bitcoin Forward Returns FROM Pause End - 14 day pauses (Year1)
==============================================================
  ATH Date        ATH Days   End Date  End Price Decline Cycle     1W  1W DD 1W Max     2W  2W DD 2W Max     1M  1M DD 1M Max     2M  2M DD 2M Max     3M  3M DD 3M Max     6M  6M DD 6M Max     1Y  1Y DD  1Y Max
04/10/2013     162.00   14 04/24/2013     149.00   -8.02 Year1 -21.64 -29.60  14.28 -24.05 -45.30  14.28 -13.62 -45.30  14.28 -32.61 -45.30  14.28 -41.62 -57.72  14.28  20.89 -57.72  22.10 237.05 -57.72  680.54
11/30/2013   1,119.80   14 12/14/2013     854.99  -23.65 Year1 -30.18 -55.30   1.75 -16.37 -55.30   1.75  -3.74 -55.30  16.38 -23.66 -55.30  16.38 -26.27 -55.30  16.38 -33.44 -60.26  16.38 -58.30 -67.84   16.38
03/10/2017   1,116.97   14 03/24/2017     929.06  -16.82 Year1  15.20  -4.06  16.35  28.16  -4.06  29.38  33.68  -4.06  34.79 143.71  -4.06 144.87 192.07  -4.06 220.75 317.03  -4.06 436.01 819.96  -4.06 2016.76
06/12/2017   2,667.06   14 06/26/2017   2,421.22   -9.22 Year1   5.34  -5.38   7.18  -4.04  -6.58   9.01   4.29 -24.42  21.34  79.91 -24.42  85.03  51.34 -24.42 105.68 503.79 -24.42 712.24 150.62 -24.42  712.24
09/02/2017   4,599.90   14 09/16/2017   3,678.93  -20.02 Year1   2.72  -5.87  12.06  17.59  -5.87  18.21  56.18  -5.87  58.92  98.26  -5.87 114.41 374.91  -5.87 387.48 124.66  -5.87 434.56  76.68  -5.87  434.56
12/17/2017  18,953.00   14 12/31/2017  13,880.00  -26.77 Year1  16.17  -7.77  24.17  -1.67  -7.78  24.17 -28.16 -33.56  24.17 -21.45 -57.34  24.17 -50.08 -57.34  24.17 -55.30 -58.40  24.17 -73.39 -77.51   24.17
01/08/2021  40,667.07   14 01/22/2021  32,992.06  -18.87 Year1   3.81 -11.64  17.06  16.15 -11.64  17.45  74.26 -11.64  76.87  64.77 -11.64  87.26  56.66 -11.64  96.70  -2.59 -13.31  96.70   6.36 -13.31  109.14
02/21/2021  57,492.91   14 03/07/2021  50,967.30  -11.35 Year1  15.79  -3.24  21.22  12.59  -3.24  21.22  13.83  -3.24  21.22  10.75  -7.78  27.33 -30.28 -41.01  27.33  -1.85 -43.89  27.33 -25.41 -43.89   35.38
03/13/2021  61,165.19   14 03/27/2021  55,839.42   -8.71 Year1   2.19  -2.08   7.64   7.03  -2.08   9.64  -3.16 -15.82  16.22 -29.60 -46.16  16.22 -43.41 -48.78  16.22 -19.58 -48.78  16.22 -16.07 -48.78   23.57
04/14/2021  62,986.09   14 04/28/2021  54,901.97  -12.83 Year1   4.75  -4.59   7.46 -10.05 -11.61   8.56 -34.99 -45.24   8.56 -36.80 -47.91   8.56 -28.10 -47.91   8.56  14.93 -47.91  22.07 -27.59 -47.91   25.68
10/20/2021  65,990.31   14 11/03/2021  62,930.72   -4.64 Year1   3.16  -4.48   9.64  -4.06  -7.20   9.64 -14.60 -18.07   9.64 -24.76 -33.31   9.64 -38.45 -47.64   9.64 -38.79 -47.64   9.64 -67.89 -72.04    9.64
11/10/2021  64,921.43   14 11/24/2021  57,185.06  -11.92 Year1   0.12  -6.78   3.95 -11.61 -26.61   3.95 -11.09 -26.61   3.95 -36.53 -40.54   3.95 -33.08 -42.38   3.95 -49.14 -55.58   3.95 -70.99 -72.93    3.95
01/20/2025 102,141.00   14 02/03/2025 101,457.00   -0.67 Year1  -3.93  -6.63   0.32  -5.60  -7.26   0.32 -10.69 -22.93   0.32 -17.35 -24.50   0.32  -7.04 -26.63   0.32   0.12 -26.63  10.36   0.12 -26.63   10.36
   Average                                        -13.35         1.04 -11.34  11.01   0.31 -14.96  12.89   4.78 -24.00  23.59  13.43 -31.09  42.49  28.97 -36.21  71.65  60.06 -38.04 140.90  73.17 -43.30  315.57
    Median                                        -11.92         3.16  -5.87   9.64  -4.04  -7.26   9.64  -3.74 -22.93  16.38 -21.45 -33.31  16.38 -28.10 -42.38  16.38  -1.85 -47.64  22.10 -16.07 -47.91   25.68
% Positive                                                       76.9    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   38.5    0.0  100.0   30.8    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0  100.0   46.2    0.0   100.0

Breakdown by Pause Period:
  14-day pause: 13 ATHs
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Finished 2025-06-06 08:02:17.027109